Sweden's Liberal Party has recorded its worst ever opinion poll result at 1.8 percent support. The January 2026 survey by Verian shows the party far below the Riksdag's four percent threshold. With eight months to the next election, Liberalerna must more than double its voter backing to secure parliamentary representation. This development signals potential upheaval in Stockholm politics and government formation.
Historic Low in Voter Support
This 1.8 percent figure is the lowest measured by Verian, which was formerly known as Sifo. The party has languished below the Riksdag spärren since November 2022. Throughout the entire previous year, Liberalerna never achieved over three percent in Verian's monthly barometers. The current reading underscores a prolonged decline for one of Sweden's traditional parties. It poses a direct challenge to the party's survival in the Swedish Parliament.
Party Secretary Fredrik Brange addressed the situation in a written statement. "The opinion situation is serious," Brange said. He added that Liberalerna finds itself in a position where it needs to be clearer about what it wants and why it is needed. Brange stated the party will soon present its most important liberal reforms. He reiterated that Liberalerna is a guarantee for a bourgeois government in Sweden. This reference to government policy in Sweden highlights its role in coalition building.
Analysis from Polling Experts
Per Söderpalm, the opinion manager at Verian, confirmed the difficult position for Liberalerna. "For every month that passes with voter support far below the Riksdag threshold, the opportunities to gain support votes in the election decrease," Söderpalm said. His analysis points to a shrinking window for recovery as the election approaches. The psychological barrier of being consistently under the spärren affects potential strategic voters. This dynamic could influence Riksdag decisions and the broader political landscape.
The Verian voter barometer for January also provides data on the broader political blocks. The Tidö parties, referring to the current Swedish government coalition, gather 44.8 percent of voter support. The opposition collectively holds 53.1 percent. This results in an 8.3 percentage point advantage for the opposition bloc. Söderpalm noted tendencies early in 2025 where the government parties narrowed the gap. However, over the past year, the distance between the political blocks has increased.
"With eight months left to the election, it is an advantage for the opposition, although much can still happen," Söderpalm concluded. The performance of smaller parties like Liberalerna can significantly influence government formation. The Swedish Parliament operates with a proportional representation system. Securing a mandate requires crossing the four percent national threshold or winning a constituency seat.
The Stakes for Parliamentary Politics
Liberalerna's role as a potential kingmaker in a bourgeois coalition adds urgency to its plight. If the party fails to enter the Riksdag, it could alter the balance of power in Stockholm. The government offices at Rosenbad and deliberations in the Riksdag building may face new dynamics. Policy decisions from the Swedish government often hinge on stable parliamentary support. The absence of Liberalerna might force a reevaluation of coalition strategies among the Tidö parties.
The historical context for Liberalerna includes periods of resilience and decline. The party has been part of Swedish governments in the past, influencing key policies. Its current struggle reflects broader shifts in voter allegiances. The emphasis on presenting liberal reforms is an attempt to reconnect with the electorate. These reforms will need to address pressing issues in government policy Sweden to gain traction.
Methodology Behind the Numbers
Verian's voter barometer is based on approximately 3,000 completed interviews. These are conducted with individuals in the Sifo panel, a panel recruited through random nationally representative samples. The panel consists of around 85,000 participants. The selection covers ages 18 to 84 years. The survey is supplemented with telephone interviews for persons aged 85 and older.
The question posed is, "Which party would you vote for if there were an election today?" The response frequency in the voter barometer is around 40 percent. Respondents are controlled to ensure they represent various demographic groups. These include gender, age, region, education, and party sympathy in the previous election. The January barometer was conducted from December 29 to January 11. This rigorous methodology ensures reliability in tracking Stockholm politics and national trends.
Implications for the 2026 Election
The 1.8 percent poll result for Liberalerna signals a critical juncture ahead of the 2026 election. The next eight months will determine whether the party can salvage its parliamentary presence. With the opposition currently holding a lead, the political landscape in Sweden remains fluid. All eyes will be on Stockholm as parties prepare for the election. Riksdag decisions in the interim may be shaped by these polling numbers.
Liberalerna's ability to present clear policies and demonstrate its necessity in the Riksdag will be crucial. The party's historical role in bourgeois governments adds weight to its current predicament. As the election nears, the Swedish government and opposition will likely adjust their strategies based on such polls. The outcome could redefine power dynamics in the Riksdag building and beyond. Voter sentiment in the coming months will ultimately decide the fate of this established party.