A recent poll shows 2.4% of Swedish voters plan to support parties outside parliament. The Sweden Democrats lost 0.5% support to the 'Other Parties' category during this government term.
Polling expert Per Söderpalm says right-wing voters mainly hide behind this category now. The three largest micro-parties are Alternative for Sweden, Medborgerlig Samling, and the Christian Values Party. All remain below 1% support nationally.
These three parties collectively gathered about 35,000 votes in the 2022 election. Could they block the governing coalition from another term in a tight race?
Söderpalm says this is just one factor. The ability to attract voters across political blocs and mobilize supporters will prove decisive.
Sweden Democrat Mattias Karlsson expressed concern after the local Ă–rebro Party announced plans to run in parliamentary elections. Their goal involves entering through Sweden's unique 12% threshold rule.
This system allows parties to win a parliamentary seat if they secure over 12% of votes in any of Sweden's 29 electoral districts. The Ă–rebro Party would need roughly 24,000 votes in Ă–rebro County after receiving 4.46% in the latest regional election.
No party has ever entered parliament this way. Party leader Markus Allard believes his group could become the first.
He cites a commissioned poll where 15% said they would vote for the Örebro Party if elections were held today. Söderpalm questions whether such surveys accurately predict parliamentary entry.
Experience shows these types of questions yield much higher support than traditional voter intention polls, he explains.
The Sweden Democrats declined to comment beyond Karlsson's earlier statements.
Political fragmentation continues challenging established parties across Europe. Sweden's small parties may not determine the election outcome alone, but they could influence close races in specific regions.