Electricity prices in southern Sweden have been above the 150 öre per kilowatt-hour ceiling for several days in October, bringing the state's high-cost protection into play. The cap took effect in January and means the state covers the price above 150 öre.
Claes Hemberg, energy economist at Nibe, says October so far has been about 1,400 kronor more expensive than last year for villa owners in the southern area. Prices have also risen in the other price areas, though they don't look set to pass the limit. "But it's money anyway. 1,200 kronor more in Stockholm or 700 kronor in Luleå for a family with children who have a villa," he says.
The support is only paid if the average for the whole month is above 150 öre, which it has been so far. Johan Sigvardsson, electricity price analyst at Bixia, says the margins are small. "It's very close to the ceiling right now. Looking at the weather, it looks like lower prices, since an intense low pressure is expected over the next seven to eight days, which means it will blow a lot."
If prices stay above the ceiling, only about 60 kronor awaits, according to Hemberg. The final months of the year could still mean an increase of 4,000 kronor compared with last year in southern Sweden. Southern Sweden has been strongly affected by the Hormuz crisis, as high gas prices in Germany and Denmark lead to more purchases of Swedish electricity.
Low levels in the water reservoirs and operational disruptions in nuclear power have also affected the price. "If you look at a year, gas prices have gone up 150 percent," Sigvardsson says. At the turn of the year the high-cost protection disappears.
Ebba Busch (KD) says a "potentially messy winter" awaits and a new high-cost protection could become relevant. "The short answer is yes. The transitional government can decide on a support ordinance that regulates details for design and payment," she says.
Vanja Dillén Savcic, adviser and senior portfolio manager at Vattenfall, says it is harder than usual to assess how electricity prices will develop. "Now we have low water levels in the reservoirs at the same time as several nuclear reactors are shut down for maintenance. That makes us more dependent on the weather," she says.
Ringhals 3, Forsmark 1 and Ringhals 4 are expected back in operation during November, she says.
Based on reporting by Aftonbladet and vattenfall.se.