Finland's National Police Commissioner has delivered a significant assessment of the nation's security landscape, stating that while numerous suspicious incidents have been investigated in recent years, none have been conclusively linked to foreign state actors. Police Commissioner Ilkka Koskimäki presented these findings during a background briefing on hybrid influencing, emphasizing that the overall situation regarding state-sponsored hybrid threats in Finland is currently calm. This declaration comes from a nation that shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia and has been on high alert for asymmetric threats since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"We do not have such evidence from these cases that there would have been a state actor behind them," Koskimäki stated definitively. He was quick to clarify that this does not mean hybrid influencing has not occurred in Finland to some degree, noting that not all cases investigated by the police have been fully resolved. The police force maintains a constant state of readiness and continuous situational awareness for potential hybrid operations, prepared to deliver an initial response around the clock.
The Anatomy of Suspicion: From Drones to Urban Exploration
The cases scrutinized by the Finnish police, particularly the National Bureau of Investigation (KRP), paint a picture of modern paranoia and mundane mischief. Over the past three years, authorities have probed a wide array of incidents initially flagged as potentially malicious. These include suspicious photography in prohibited areas, cybercrime incidents, unauthorized drone flights, and even damage to critical infrastructure both on land and underwater.
Robin Lardot, Chief of the National Bureau of Investigation, highlighted the investigative imperative. "It is important to be able to rule out, through pre-trial investigation, the possibility that it is state influence," Lardot explained. Some cases were notably peculiar: individuals fishing in the wrong location, photographers capturing images in restricted zones, or unexplained damage to industrial buildings. Upon deeper investigation, many of these events were attributed to ordinary property crimes, hobbyist activities misconstrued as espionage, or the growing trend of urban exploration.
A Calm Surface with Vigilant Depths
Commissioner Koskimäki's message was one of reassured vigilance. "The overall situation is thus calm, but the police are seriously prepared for hybrid threats and will provide an initial response 24/7 if necessary," he said. This posture reflects Finland's comprehensive security model, where societal resilience is considered as crucial as military defense. The police and other security agencies maintain a continuous monitoring operation, analyzing patterns and intelligence to distinguish between criminal activity and coordinated state-backed campaigns.
This calm assessment is strategically significant. By publicly stating that no clear state link has been found, Finnish authorities aim to project stability and confidence, potentially deterring actors who seek to create an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. It also serves to reassure the public and international partners without downplaying the very real threat hybrid warfare poses. The police underscored that investigating these suspicious cases remains vital, even when they conclude without uncovering a geopolitical plot, as each closed case refines their understanding of the threat landscape.
The Shadow of the Eastern Border and Evolving Threats
Finland's security calculus is irrevocably shaped by its geography. As a NATO member since April 2023, and a neighbor to Russia, the country is on the frontline of European security. Hybrid influencing—a blend of disinformation, cyber operations, economic pressure, and the exploitation of societal fractures—has been a hallmark of Russian strategy in the region for years. The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO) has repeatedly warned of long-term Russian efforts to influence Finnish politics, sow discord, and test societal resilience.
Security experts note that the absence of proven state links in police investigations does not equate to an absence of threat. Hybrid operations are designed to be ambiguous and deniable, often employing proxies, cut-outs, and tactics that blur the line between state action and independent activity. A drone flight near a power substation could be a hobbyist's mistake or a reconnaissance test. Disinformation campaigns can be amplified by seemingly organic social media accounts. The challenge for agencies like the KRP and SUPO is attribution, which is often slow, complex, and reliant on intelligence not always available for criminal prosecution.
"The nature of hybrid threats is that they are constantly evolving," said one Nordic security analyst familiar with the region. "Finland's approach—investigating thoroughly, maintaining high readiness, and publicly communicating a calm but prepared stance—is textbook resilience. The fact they haven't found a smoking gun in these cases is positive, but it doesn't mean the gun isn't being assembled elsewhere." The analyst further suggested that some activities might receive tacit support or indirect coordination from state actors, making definitive legal proof extraordinarily difficult to obtain.
A Society-Wide Defense Posture
Finland's response to hybrid threats extends far beyond the police and intelligence services. The government has integrated preparedness into education, critical infrastructure management, and media literacy programs. The goal is to create a society where attempts to manipulate public opinion or cause disruptive panic are less likely to succeed. This whole-of-society model is considered a key deterrent.
The police's role in this ecosystem is critical. By investigating every suspicious incident with rigor, they not only rule out threats but also gather valuable data on tactics and methods. This information feeds into national risk assessments and helps shape preparedness training for other sectors, from energy companies to municipal governments. The 24/7 response capability mentioned by Koskimäki is a tangible component of this deterrence, ensuring that any incident, regardless of its origin, is met with a swift and coordinated official response to contain its impact.
Looking Ahead: Calm Does Not Mean Complacent
The Finnish police's current assessment offers a moment of measured reassurance in a volatile security environment. It indicates that the most blatant forms of state-sponsored sabotage or interference have not yet taken root on Finnish soil in a detectable way. However, the briefing was not a declaration of victory but a status report. The very act of holding the briefing underscores the permanence of the threat.
The coming years will test this preparedness. As Finland integrates further into NATO and continues its firm support for Ukraine, it remains a potential target for retaliatory hybrid campaigns. These could range from intensified cyberattacks on government and financial systems to more sophisticated disinformation narratives aimed at undermining public support for NATO or eroding trust in national institutions. The suspicious cases of today—the errant drones, the curious photographers—are the training ground for identifying the more serious operations of tomorrow.
For now, the message from the Helsinki police headquarters is clear: vigilance continues, readiness is high, but the nation is not under immediate, proven state-led hybrid attack. In the shadowy world of modern conflict, where ambiguity is a weapon, that clarity is itself a form of defense. The ultimate question remains whether this calm is a testament to effective deterrence or merely the quiet before a more complex storm.