Norway's oil and gas industry is experiencing a significant surge in public support, with a new poll showing 78% of Norwegians now back maintaining the sector. This marks an 8-percentage-point increase from last year and comes as the government prepares to award new exploration licenses in mature areas of the North Sea.
"It is fantastic to see that the industry has so much support, across regions, gender, age, and parties," said Marianne Olsnes, chair of industry group Offshore Norge and head of Shell's Norwegian operations. "It is broad and increasing support for the industry, and it is very pleasing."
The survey, conducted by Verian for Offshore Norge in November and December, polled approximately 3,000 people. It reveals a notable shift in sentiment, with support for continued exploration also rising. The findings arrive just as the industry gathers for its annual Sandefjord Conference, where the government traditionally announces the recipients of new licenses under the Awards in Pre-defined Areas (APA) scheme, often called the TFO arrangement.
A Broad-Based Political Shift
The increase in support is not confined to traditional pro-oil constituencies. It has grown across all voter groups, presenting a complex picture for Norway's political landscape, which has long been divided on the future of its hydrocarbon wealth.
Among the traditionally skeptical left-wing and green parties, the figures are revealing. Support for maintaining the industry now stands at 38% among Socialist Left (SV) voters and 24% among Green Party (MDG) voters. A majority—54%—of Red Party (Rødt) voters back the sector's continuation. For the centrist Liberal Party (Venstre), support is at 61%, and it reaches 91% among Christian Democratic (KrF) voters.
On the pro-industry side, support is near-universal: 98% of Progress Party (Frp) voters, 95% of Centre Party (Sp) voters, 94% of Conservative Party (Høyre) voters, and 81% of Labour Party (Ap) voters favor maintaining oil and gas activities. The proportion of respondents saying "no" to the industry has correspondingly decreased.
Geopolitics and Energy Security as Catalysts
Analysts point to the altered European security landscape following Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a primary driver behind the shifting public mood. Norway has become Europe's largest supplier of natural gas, replacing Russian volumes and providing critical energy security.
"We don't know for certain why support has increased, but I hope more people understand how important Norwegian energy deliveries to Europe are, given the security policy situation we are in," Olsnes commented. She noted that oil and gas received considerable attention during both the local election campaign and the autumn budget negotiations. "The debate around oil is often loud, but I think most people understand that it is important to maintain the industry for the Norwegian economy, jobs, and for Europe's energy security."
This pragmatic view appears to be resonating. The industry argues that Norwegian production, with its relatively low carbon footprint per barrel compared to global averages, is part of the solution for a stable energy transition. The vast wealth generated—channeled into the world's largest sovereign wealth fund—also continues to underpin the Norwegian welfare state.
The Licensing Paradox and Climate Goals
The rising support creates a stark paradox for Norway. The nation is a global leader in electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy investment, yet its economic foundation and geopolitical influence remain deeply tied to fossil fuels. The government, a coalition led by Labour and the Centre Party, walks a tightrope between climate commitments and economic realism.
The upcoming APA awards highlight this tension. The licenses are for mature areas near existing infrastructure, like the iconic Troll and Oseberg fields, which proponents argue allows for efficient, lower-emission production. Critics, however, contend that any new exploration locks in future emissions and delays the necessary transition.
The public's growing support suggests a national consensus may be forming around a managed, long-term decline rather than an abrupt halt. The focus is shifting towards concepts like "greener" production through electrification of platforms and investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, such as the ambitious Longship project.
Regional Economic Lifeline
Beyond abstract debates on climate and security, the industry's tangible impact on coastal communities is a powerful factor. From Stavanger to Hammerfest, the sector provides high-skilled jobs and sustains a vast network of supply companies. In regions like Rogaland and Møre og Romsdal, the offshore sector is irreplaceable. The fear of economic hollowing out, similar to what has been seen in some traditional fishing communities, makes the industry's continuity a matter of regional survival for many.
This economic dependency ensures that political support, particularly from the Centre Party—which draws much of its strength from rural and coastal areas—remains strong. The argument is not just about national accounts but about keeping communities alive and preventing a north-south divide from widening further.
Looking Ahead: A Sustainable Industry?
The challenge for the industry and the government is to reconcile this renewed public mandate with Norway's international climate obligations. The path forward likely involves a dual track: maximizing value and minimizing emissions from existing fields while aggressively positioning Norwegian companies as exporters of renewable energy technology, particularly offshore wind and hydrogen.
The survey results indicate Norwegians are choosing a path of evolution, not revolution. They see the oil and gas industry not as a relic of the past but as a critical national asset that must be managed responsibly through the energy transition. This pragmatic approach accepts that hydrocarbons will remain part of the global energy mix for decades, and that Norway can produce them more cleanly than others.
As the Sandefjord Conference unfolds and new licenses are granted in the North Sea, the industry will be buoyed by this wave of public confidence. Yet, the underlying question remains: Can Norway successfully transform its oil and gas prowess into a leadership role in a post-fossil fuel world? The nation's voters, it seems, are betting that it can, but they are not yet ready to turn off the tap that has funded their future.
The 78% figure is more than a statistic; it is a statement of national priorities in uncertain times. It reflects a calculation that energy security, economic stability, and high-wage jobs are immediate necessities, even as the long-term climate mission continues. How this balance is struck will define Norway's next chapter.