Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has declared a new strategic direction for the nation's oil and gas industry, aiming to sustain production levels despite a looming natural decline. In a speech to his Labour Party's central board, Støre delivered a clear message: the government has no plans to turn off the taps. "The message from me today is clear: We will take care of the oil and gas industry. We will continue to explore, produce, and deliver to Europe," Støre stated. This announcement sets the stage for a major parliamentary white paper designed to navigate the difficult choices of the coming decade, directly challenging calls from environmental allies for a definitive end date.
A Strategic Shift to Counter Natural Decline
The Prime Minister's intervention is a direct response to a fundamental geological reality. Following a record year for oil production in 2025, forecasts indicate output from the Norwegian Continental Shelf will soon begin to fall. This decline is driven by the natural depletion of existing fields, not policy. Støre's objective is to manage this inevitable downturn. "We will dampen the fall in production on the Norwegian shelf, which comes from natural causes," he explained during his address. The forthcoming white paper will serve as the government's formal framework for addressing this challenge, focusing on continued exploration and investment to extend the lifespan of Norway's most significant economic sector.
Political Reception and Coalition Tensions
The policy shift has received a cautiously positive response from the opposition Conservative Party (Høyre), which claims original ownership of the idea. Energy policy spokesperson Aleksander Stokkebø welcomed the move but urged the government to provide stability. "It is good that the Labour Party is backing Høyre's proposal for a new petroleum report. Now I expect the Ap-government to stop opening for internal battles on the left about Norway's most important industry," Stokkebø said. He expressed hope that Støre's commitment was serious, highlighting the industry's desire for predictable, long-term policy. However, Støre must perform a delicate balancing act. His minority coalition government relies on support from the Socialist Left Party (SV) and the Green Party (MDG), both of which advocate for a faster transition away from fossil fuels.
The Green Party's Stark Opposition
The announcement has ignited fierce criticism from the government's own support party, the Greens (MDG). Party leader Arild Hermstad was unequivocal in his rejection of Støre's approach, framing it as a denial of climate realities. "Støre cannot petroleum-report his way out of reality. The government's oil policy must relate to the time we live in, and not to dreams of a world that no longer exists," Hermstad said. He argued that Europe's accelerating shift away from fossil fuels and the escalating climate crisis, which he partly attributes to Norwegian oil and gas, make continued investment irresponsible. "As long as power, capital, and competence are channeled into the oil industry, which Støre clearly wants to continue, there will be no green transition in Norway," Hermstad stated. For MDG, the solution is a definitive plan for a phase-out, not a plan for prolongation.
The Commission on Transition: A Contested Tool
This conflict is crystallized in the government's commitment to establish a dedicated "transition commission." This body was a key demand from MDG as part of the recent budget negotiations. Yet, the two parties have fundamentally different interpretations of its purpose. For MDG, the commission represents the beginning of the "final phase" for the Norwegian shelf. For Prime Minister Støre, it is an instrument for managing the existing industry's future. "The transition commission will contribute to a better knowledge base to meet the challenges we face," he explained, carefully avoiding any language that suggests it is a vehicle for planning an immediate termination. This semantic and political divide highlights the core tension within Norway's governing bloc.
Analysis: Navigating the Geopolitical and Economic Crossroads
Støre's new course is a calculated bet on multiple fronts. Economically, oil and gas revenues still fill the vast Government Pension Fund Global and finance a significant portion of the Norwegian welfare state. A sharp, policy-induced drop in production would have immediate and severe fiscal consequences. Geopolitically, Norway has positioned itself as a stable, reliable energy supplier to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ending production would cede this strategic role and potentially increase European reliance on less stable suppliers. However, the environmental and political costs are mounting. The Greens' frustration signals a breaking point on the left, and Norway's international climate commitments continue to draw scrutiny towards its export emissions. The white paper will be a critical document, not just for industry planning, but for holding a fractious political coalition together. It must provide enough substance on diversification and green technology to placate SV and MDG, while offering enough certainty and opportunity to the oil sector to maintain investment.
The Road Ahead for the Norwegian Shelf
The coming months will reveal the specifics of Støre's plan. Key questions remain unanswered: Which new exploration areas might be opened, particularly in the sensitive Arctic regions like the Barents Sea? What specific measures and incentives will the government propose to "dampen" the production decline? How will the transition commission be composed, and what will its precise mandate be? The white paper's reception in the Storting will be a major test of Støre's leadership. He must convince the opposition right that his plan is sufficiently ambitious for industry, while simultaneously convincing the support parties on his left that it is a genuine step towards a greener future, not a perpetuation of the status quo. The Prime Minister has drawn his line in the sand, choosing to extend the era of Norwegian oil and gas. Whether this line holds against the pressures of climate science, European energy policy, and domestic politics will define his premiership and Norway's economic trajectory for decades to come.