Norway's trade surplus fell to its lowest level since the pandemic last year, landing at 663 billion kroner in 2025, according to new data from Statistics Norway (SSB). The figure represents a significant drop from recent highs, driven primarily by lower oil export revenues, though it remains a substantial surplus by historical standards. Senior advisor Jan Olav Rørhus at SSB said the declining trend was tempered by continued high export values for natural gas and mainland goods.
The Numbers Behind the Decline
SSB's detailed figures show Norway exported goods worth 1,775 billion kroner in 2025 while importing goods valued at 1,112 billion kroner. The resulting 663 billion kroner surplus is the smallest annual surplus recorded since 2021. While still a massive inflow of foreign currency, it marks a clear shift from the record-breaking surpluses seen in the immediate years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when European energy prices spiked. The data confirms a gradual normalization of Norway's external trade balance as exceptional market conditions subside.
Oil's Downward Pull on Exports
The central factor dragging down the overall export value was lower revenue from crude oil sales. While SSB did not release a specific breakdown in this release, historical data shows oil typically constitutes a major portion of Norway's goods exports. Fluctuations in the global price of Brent crude and production levels from Norwegian continental shelf fields directly impact this figure. The decline suggests that average realized prices for Norwegian oil were lower in 2025 than in the preceding years of extreme volatility. This has direct implications for the state's petroleum revenue and the fiscal budget debated in the Storting.
Gas and Mainland Exports Provide a Buffer
Despite the drop in oil income, the overall export value remained relatively high. As Jan Olav Rørhus noted, strong performance in other sectors cushioned the fall. 'High export value for natural gas and mainland exports dampens the effect of lower oil exports in 2025,' Rørhus said. Norway's natural gas exports, primarily piped to Europe, have remained a stable and critical income source as the continent seeks alternatives to Russian gas. Furthermore, exports from mainland industriesâwhich include everything from aquaculture salmon and aluminum to specialized maritime equipmentâcontinue to show resilience, contributing to a diversified trade profile beyond hydrocarbons.
Historical Context and Future Trajectory
To understand the significance of the 663 billion kroner figure, it's useful to look back. The trade surplus skyrocketed to over 1.7 trillion kroner in 2022. The 2025 result, while markedly lower, still far exceeds pre-pandemic levels. For instance, the surplus in 2019 was approximately 273 billion kroner. This indicates that Norway's trade balance, while cooling, is resetting at a much higher plateau than before the recent energy crisis. The surplus is a key contributor to Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, meaning its size affects the amount of petroleum revenue the government can spend annually under its fiscal rule.
Implications for the State Budget
The trade data feeds directly into political discussions in Oslo concerning the state's financial health. A lower surplus from petroleum activities translates into reduced revenue for the government treasury. This creates a tighter framework for Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum and the government when negotiating the annual budget. It amplifies debates between parties over spending priorities for welfare, defense, and infrastructure, as the inflow of petrokroner available for allocation without dipping into the fund's expected returns is diminished. The figures underscore the enduring link between global commodity markets and Norway's domestic fiscal policy.
Sectoral Impact Across the Economy
The effects of this trade shift are felt unevenly across the Norwegian economy. Regions heavily dependent on the oil service industry, such as Stavanger and parts of the west coast, monitor these figures closely for signals about investment and employment. Conversely, mainland export industries in sectors like seafood, metals, and technology benefit from a weaker krone, which often accompanies lower oil prices, making their goods more competitive abroad. The SSB report, therefore, paints a picture of a national economy in transition, where the immense weight of oil is still present but is being partially counterbalanced by other strong performers.
The Arctic Dimension
Norway's trade story is increasingly tied to its northern regions. While not the primary driver of this specific annual change, developments in the Arctic influence long-term trade prospects. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and expanding activity in the Barents Sea represent future export potential. Furthermore, mainland exports from the north, including mineral resources and seafood from the Norwegian and Barents Seas, are growth areas. Policymakers at the Storting view sustainable development in the High North as essential for future economic security, especially as traditional oil fields in the North and Norwegian Seas mature.
A Look Ahead
The key question for Norwegian policymakers and economists is where the trade surplus stabilizes. Is 2025's 663 billion kroner a new baseline, or will it decline further as Europe's energy transition accelerates? The answer depends on a complex mix of factors: OPEC+ production decisions, the duration of European demand for Norwegian gas, global industrial demand for metals, and the health of key aquaculture markets. For now, the SSB data confirms a post-crisis correction is underway. Norway remains a nation with a formidable trade surplus, but the era of seemingly limitless energy windfalls appears to be moderating, setting the stage for tougher budgetary choices in the years to come.