Norway's capital Oslo recorded a 2 percent increase in car traffic last year, significantly outpacing growth in public transport usage, according to fresh data from toll road company Fjellinjen. Nearly 397 million vehicles passed through Fjellinjen's 83 toll stations in 2025, marking a new potential record for automotive volume in the city. Public transport operator Ruter reported a mere 0.3 percent rise in bus, ferry, tram, and metro passengers during the first eleven months of the same period. This growing divergence poses a direct challenge to Oslo's ambitious plans to reduce private car use and cut carbon emissions.
Record Vehicle Numbers on Oslo's Roads
Fjellinjen's figures indicate that December alone saw 31.95 million vehicle passages, a 1.9 percent increase compared to December 2024. The annual total of 397 million vehicles underscores a persistent trend of rising car dependence. While comprehensive yearly data for public transport is still pending, the preliminary 0.3 percent growth rate for buses and rail services from January to November highlights a stark contrast. This imbalance occurs despite substantial city investments in the metro system and a widespread public commitment to greener mobility. The data suggests that for many residents, the private car remains the preferred option for daily travel.
Unpacking the Causes of Car-Centric Growth
Trafikkanalytiker Stian Strøm Arnesen at Fjellinjen points to two immediate factors influencing the statistics. "Days with heavy snow make more people leave their car at home. When we have fewer such days than in previous years, it affects the annual statistics," Arnesen explained. The unusually mild winter of 2025, with minimal snowfall, likely encouraged more driving. Simultaneously, extensive construction work on the T-bane metro network, particularly on major lines running through the city center and western suburbs, has disrupted service reliability. These interruptions have pushed some commuters back into their vehicles, even if temporarily. This analysis is supported by transport economists who note that even short-term disruptions can have lasting effects on travel habits, eroding trust in public transit.
The Electric Vehicle Paradox
A critical silver lining within the traffic data is the accelerating shift to electric vehicles. In November 2025, Fjellinjen registered over 50 percent electric cars at its toll stations for the first time. Across the entire year, electric vehicles accounted for 48.3 percent of all traffic, while fossil-fuel cars represented 43.8 percent—a decline of 4.6 percentage points from the previous year. This transformation, driven by Norway's powerful tax incentives and expanding charging infrastructure, means that while there are more cars on the road, tailpipe emissions are falling. However, experts caution that traffic congestion, noise pollution, and urban space allocation remain unresolved issues. The increase in total vehicle volume, regardless of powertrain, still conflicts with Oslo's broader goal of creating a people-centered city with less through-traffic.
Policy Implications for Oslo's Green Ambitions
Oslo's city government, led by the Labour Party and Green Party coalition, has set a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 95 percent by 2030. Reducing transport emissions is a cornerstone of this plan, relying on a combination of congestion charges, improved cycling lanes, and a major expansion of the public transport network. The latest traffic figures indicate these policies are facing headwinds. The congestion charge zone, encompassing the inner city and major routes like the Ring 3 motorway, has not curbed overall vehicle growth. Political voices from the Conservative Party and Progress Party argue the data justifies a pause on further car-restrictive measures, while the Greens and Socialist Left call for redoubled investment in reliable, frequent public transit. The debate is set to intensify during the upcoming municipal budget negotiations at Oslo's City Hall.
A Comparative Look at Nordic Capitals
Oslo's experience is not unique, but its context is distinct. Copenhagen has seen more stable public transport growth alongside its cycling culture, while Stockholm's congestion tax has been more effective in limiting car traffic increases. Norway's national policy, however, heavily promotes electric vehicle adoption through exemptions from value-added tax and import duties. This has created a situation where Oslo leads the world in per capita EV ownership, yet struggles with overall traffic volume. The duality presents a complex policy puzzle: how to maintain the benefits of electrification while actively reducing the number of vehicles on the road. Some urban planners suggest that Oslo must focus on land-use planning, ensuring new housing developments in areas like Fornebu and Økern are intrinsically linked to high-capacity public transport from the outset.
The Road Ahead for Urban Mobility
Future trends will depend on several factors. The completion of major T-bane upgrades, such as the Fornebubanen line, could significantly boost public transport capacity and attract riders back from their cars. However, the city's continued economic growth and population increase in the wider Viken county will generate more travel demand. A lasting solution may require a more integrated approach, where housing, workplace, and transport planning are seamlessly coordinated. The question for Oslo is whether it can leverage its technological lead in electric mobility to also achieve a modal shift away from private vehicles altogether. As the data from 2025 shows, having cleaner cars is a vital step, but it is not the final destination for a sustainable city. The coming years will test whether Oslo's policy framework is strong enough to steer its residents toward trains, trams, and buses, or if the convenience of the private car—even an electric one—will continue to dominate the daily commute.