Finland's weather is set to turn sharply colder, with forecasters warning of a widespread freeze that could see temperatures plunge to minus 40 degrees Celsius in the north in the coming weeks. Forecan meteorologist Joanna Rinne detailed the outlook in a fresh monthly forecast, predicting a sustained period of below-average temperatures across the entire country from next week until mid-February.
A Nationwide Chill Takes Hold
The week that has just begun is expected to see average temperatures in southern and central parts of the country run colder than usual. A flow of frigid air from the east and north is predicted to bring conditions that are colder than normal to all of Finland from next week onward. 'In the coming weeks, the weather will be suitable for winter sports – temperatures will remain below freezing, and the forecast charts don't show significant snowfall,' Rinne said in a Forecan blog post. The monthly forecast outlines average weather patterns, but conditions on individual days can vary significantly.
Diverging Regional Patterns
While the deep cold builds elsewhere, Lapland is experiencing continued mild conditions. In the northeastern parts, temperatures could be up to five degrees warmer than average, with readings approaching zero. Across the rest of Finland, the weather will be a few degrees colder than average, with temperatures slipping below freezing on Tuesday. Northern areas will see around minus ten degrees Celsius, though the northeast may only experience a few degrees of frost early in the week.
As the week progresses, frost between minus 10 and minus 20 degrees is expected nationwide. An insulating cloud cover will cause some local temperature variations. Minor snowfall is possible over the weekend, but no significant accumulations are expected.
The Source of the Severe Cold
The driving force behind this impending freeze is a cold air mass spreading from the north. Rinne's analysis points to a persistent atmospheric pattern that will lock in the chill. 'Based on the monthly forecast, it looks like the air flows will remain from the northern or eastern sectors for us, and the route of rain areas from the Atlantic will stay away from over Finland,' Rinne stated. If skies clear, northern regions could again experience temperatures of minus 30 and even below minus 40 degrees Celsius. The week overall is forecast to be 3 to 6 degrees colder than average across Finland, with even the south seeing frosts exceeding minus 10 degrees.
Forecast Uncertainty Remains
While the broader trend is clear, meteorologists note some predictability challenges. Disagreements exist over whether the weather will moderate toward the end of the week or not. The predictability for the first weeks of February is described as poor, yet the monthly forecast consistently indicates weekly average temperatures remaining below the seasonal norm. This aligns with the expectation of a dominant Arctic and continental influence, blocking the milder, moister Atlantic systems that typically interrupt Finland's winter cold.
Historical Context and Typical February Weather
Extreme cold spells are a feature of Finnish winters, though their frequency and severity can vary. The potential for temperatures below minus 40 degrees Celsius, while severe, is not unprecedented, particularly in Lapland and the northern interior. February is historically the coldest month of the year in much of Finland. This forecast suggests the month may live up to that reputation this year, with a strong and persistent high-pressure system from the Russian Arctic likely to be the main actor. The pattern described by Rinne – blocked Atlantic inflows and an easterly or northerly fetch – is a classic setup for Finland's most intense winter cold.
Practical Implications for Daily Life
Such a prolonged and intense cold snap has immediate consequences. Energy consumption for heating typically surges, putting pressure on the power grid. Authorities often issue warnings about the risks of frostbite and hypothermia, especially for vulnerable populations. Transportation can be disrupted, with diesel fuel gelling in extreme cold and increased mechanical failures in vehicles. The forecast of limited significant snow, however, may mitigate some travel difficulties compared to a combined snow-and-cold event. The mention of suitable conditions for winter sports will be welcomed by enthusiasts, though the extreme cold requires careful layering and preparation for safe outdoor activity.