Norwegian support for European Union membership has surged by five percentage points in a new opinion poll, shrinking the long-standing majority against joining. The latest survey shows 38 percent would now vote 'yes', while the 'no' side has dropped seven points to 48 percent. This marks the first time since February 2023 that opposition has fallen below the 50 percent threshold. The shift suggests a potential reopening of one of Norway's most enduring political debates.
A Significant Shift in Sentiment
The poll, conducted by Opinion for Altinget, surveyed 1,000 respondents over the age of 18. It carries a margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 percentage points. The 'yes' side's jump to 38 percent represents a notable gain, while the group answering 'don't know' increased by two points to 14 percent. This movement indicates a period of reconsideration among Norwegian voters regarding the country's relationship with Europe. The data provides concrete evidence of changing attitudes, moving beyond theoretical discussion to measurable public opinion.
Generational and Geographic Divides
The survey reveals a clear generational split in attitudes. Voters over the age of 40 are the most positive toward membership, with the strongest support found among the oldest demographic. In the 60+ age group, 43 percent would vote 'yes', compared to 46 percent 'no'. Among those under 30, a clear majority of 55 percent would vote against joining, with only 30 percent in favor. This divide suggests the EU debate is not just about policy but also about generational perspective and experience.
Geographically, support is concentrated in the capital. Oslo is the only region where a majority, 52 percent, would vote for membership, with just 32 percent opposed. This urban-rural split mirrors other political cleavages in Norway, where Oslo often stands apart from the rest of the country on international and cultural issues. The capital's status as a hub for business, academia, and government likely influences its more outward-looking stance.
Party Affiliation and Voter Alignment
Breaking down the numbers by political party reveals where the shifts are occurring. Support is highest among voters for the Liberal Party (Venstre), where 75 percent say 'yes'. They are followed by Conservative Party (Høyre) voters at 58 percent and Green Party (MDG) voters at 53 percent. Within the governing Labour Party (Ap), a significant 49 percent of voters now say they would vote for EU membership, with only 32 percent opposed. This indicates a major shift within a key political bloc that has traditionally been divided on the issue.
The Socialist Left Party (SV) shows 31 percent in favor and 43 percent against, while the Centre Party (Senterpartiet), a historically staunch opponent of membership, still sees 8 percent of its voters supporting a 'yes' vote. Labour, the Socialist Left, and the Greens have the highest numbers of uncertain voters, suggesting their positions could still move significantly. These party-level numbers are crucial as they map the potential for the EU question to disrupt traditional political alliances and coalition mathematics in the Storting.
The Historical Context of the Debate
Norway has rejected EU membership twice in national referendums, in 1972 and 1994. The 1994 vote saw 52.2 percent vote against joining. Since then, the country has participated in the European single market through the EEA Agreement, adopting most EU rules without having a formal vote in the bloc's institutions. This arrangement has been a persistent source of political tension, with critics labeling it 'fax democracy' where Norway merely receives regulations decided elsewhere.
The poll's findings come at a time when European security and energy policy are dominant issues, potentially influencing public perception. Norway is a major supplier of natural gas to the EU and a key partner in Arctic and North Atlantic security. The practical integration between Norway and the EU is deep, spanning from energy markets to research funding and police cooperation, which may be contributing to a reassessment of the formal political relationship.
What the Political Shift Means
The direct political implication of this poll is that the EU question is no longer dormant. For party leaders, especially within Labour and the Conservative Party, these numbers signal that a substantial portion of their voter base is open to a debate they have largely avoided for three decades. It changes the internal calculus on whether to keep the issue off the agenda. The rise in 'don't know' responses also highlights a voter segment that is potentially open to persuasion from either side of the campaign.
The generational divide poses a long-term strategic question. While older voters are now more positive, younger voters remain predominantly skeptical. This could indicate that arguments about sovereignty and cultural independence still resonate strongly with new generations, or it may reflect different priorities. For the 'yes' side to achieve a lasting majority, it would need to make inroads with younger demographics, which current data shows it has not yet done.