Sweden's goal of building ten new large-scale nuclear reactors by 2045 faces major uncertainty after policy support failed to match utility ambitions. State-owned energy giant Vattenfall says it requires a clear, large-scale program to justify investment decisions, but the Swedish government has only arranged financing equivalent to two reactors.
The sudden ambiguity marks a stark contrast to the government's earlier pledge for a powerful expansion of nuclear power. The shift centers on a gap between political rhetoric and the concrete financial frameworks required for multi-billion-euro projects spanning decades.
A Pledge Meets Practical Hurdles
The government, based in Rosenbad, has consistently stated its aim is a significant nuclear expansion. Its energy policy targets 'a powerful expansion of nuclear power, which for example could correspond to at least ten new large-scale reactors' by 2045. However, translating that political objective into actionable policy for industry has proven difficult. The concrete measure implemented so far is a financing model, via state credit guarantees, designed to cover the initial investment for new reactors. According to government calculations, this model is sized to support the construction of approximately two large reactors, not ten.
This limited financial backing creates a direct conflict with Vattenfall's stated needs. The company's leadership has publicly emphasized that deciding to build new nuclear capacity requires the security of a long-term, large-scale program. A project of such magnitude demands unprecedented industrial mobilization, supply chain development, and workforce planning. Without a predictable pipeline of projects, the financial risk for the first reactor becomes prohibitive, as it must bear the cost of re-establishing a dormant industrial sector.
The Ringhals Focus and Parliamentary Reality
Current political support appears narrowly focused. The Moderate Party-led coalition has secured backing from the Sweden Democrats for its energy policy, but the scope of that agreement is specific. The supporting party, the Social Democrats (S), has declared it only backs Vattenfall's specific project at the existing Ringhals nuclear plant site. This leaves other potential sites, such as Forsmark or a new greenfield location, without a broad political consensus. A decision in the Riksdag to approve a new reactor requires stable, multi-party support given the long timeline that will span several electoral cycles.
The Riksdag building has seen debates on the financing model, known as 'risk reduction measures,' but legislators have not extended the framework beyond its initial design. Energy Minister Ebba Busch has championed nuclear power's role in the transition to a fossil-free society. Yet her ministry has not yet proposed additional legislation or budgetary allocations to bridge the gap between the two-reactor financing cap and the ten-reactor ambition. The bureaucratic process for expanding the credit guarantee framework would involve a new proposal from the government, a review by the Law Council, and a fresh vote in the Riksdag.
Vattenfall's Calculated Position
Vattenfall's public stance underscores a fundamental business reality. New nuclear reactors are investments that span 80 years or more, from planning to decommissioning. The company's board and investors will not greenlight final investment decisions based on political aspirations that could change with a future government. They require legally binding frameworks and financial terms that ensure project viability under various future scenarios. The utility's caution is informed by past experiences in other European countries where nuclear projects have faced severe cost overruns and delays, even with state support.
The company is currently conducting feasibility studies for new construction at Ringhals. These studies will evaluate all aspects of potential new reactors, from technology selection to environmental impact and grid connection. However, company officials have indicated that a positive feasibility study result does not automatically lead to a construction decision. The critical go/no-go milestone depends on the establishment of a viable business case, which is directly contingent on the state's long-term commitment and risk-sharing mechanisms.
Historical Context of Nuclear Policy Swings
The current uncertainty is not without precedent in Swedish politics. The country's relationship with nuclear power has undergone dramatic shifts. A 1980 referendum led to a decision to phase out nuclear power, a policy that was later reversed. The current government's pro-nuclear stance reversed the previous Social Democratic-led government's phase-out policy. This history of policy reversal contributes to the private sector's demand for durable, cross-party agreements. Investors seek immunity from the political pendulum swings that characterize energy policy in many democracies.
The 2045 target date is also significant. It aligns with Sweden's legally binding target to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Nuclear power is positioned by the government as a cornerstone for providing stable, fossil-free baseload power to complement intermittent renewables like wind and solar. A failure to build new nuclear capacity would necessitate a rapid scaling of other energy sources, grid storage solutions, and possibly increased electricity imports, challenging the net-zero pathway.
The Path Forward and Lingering Questions
The immediate future of Swedish nuclear expansion now hinges on political action. The government must decide whether to initiate the process to expand its financial guarantees and present a more detailed roadmap. This would involve the Ministry of Climate and Enterprise, under Minister Ebba Busch, drafting new legislative proposals. Any new proposal would be scrutinized for its fiscal impact and its alignment with EU state aid rules, adding another layer of complexity and time.
Key questions remain unanswered in Stockholm's political district. Will the government and the Riksdag develop a program large enough to satisfy Vattenfall's conditions? Can a broader parliamentary agreement be secured that outlives the current governing coalition? The answers will determine whether Sweden's nuclear ambitions are revived or quietly scaled back to a more modest level. The coming months will be critical as Vattenfall's feasibility studies near completion, forcing a moment of political and financial truth for Sweden's energy future.