Norway's Red Party has surged to nearly 8 percent support in a new opinion poll, positioning it as the fourth largest political force in the country. The poll from Respons Analyse indicates a right-wing bourgeois majority would now hold power in the Storting if an election were held today. This shift underscores significant volatility in Norway's political landscape less than two years after the last national vote.
Poll Results Reveal Major Shift
The survey shows Rødt with 7.8 percent voter support, a rise of 1.5 percentage points since the last measurement. This places the socialist party ahead of the Socialist Left Party (SV), which has fallen to 4.5 percent. Only 57 percent of those who voted for SV in the 2021 Storting election said they would do so again. On the bourgeois side, the Conservative Party (Høyre) saw the largest gain, up 3.3 points since the election. The Progress Party (Frp) remains the largest single party in the poll at 26.1 percent, though it dropped 1.8 points. The Labour Party (Ap) holds steady at 24.9 percent.
This poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. It was conducted for two major Norwegian newspapers. The numbers suggest a clear movement away from the traditional left-wing bloc that currently supports Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre's minority government.
Rødt's Rise and Leadership Response
Rødt leader Marie Sneve Martinussen responded to the poll results with clear enthusiasm. She said in a statement that the feedback is very pleasant. Martinussen noted that Rødt continues to grow after the election, which she finds very exciting. This growth comes as the party, for the first time, has the opportunity to show what it will use political power for. Rødt entered the Storting after the 2021 election with eight seats. Its rise is now cutting into the support base of SV, long the dominant force to the left of Labour.
The party's platform includes ambitious proposals for nationalizing parts of the oil industry and implementing stringent environmental policies. These positions often resonate in debates about Norway's energy future and Arctic sovereignty. Martinussen's reference to using power likely points to these policy areas where Rødt seeks influence.
Decline of the Socialist Left and Labour's Challenge
SV's drop to 4.5 percent represents a stark decline for a party that once polled in double digits. This erosion suggests a potential realignment on the left flank of Norwegian politics. Some analysts point to SV's role in supporting the current government as a factor in its declining popularity. The party has backed Labour and the Centre Party in key votes but has struggled to distinguish its own profile.
Labour itself remains stable in the poll but faces the challenge of a weakened supporting bloc. With SV faltering and Rødt gaining, the arithmetic for maintaining a left-leaning majority in the Storting becomes more difficult. Prime Minister Støre must navigate these shifts while managing issues like high electricity prices and the future of the oil sector.
Bourgeois Parties Gain Ground
The poll indicates a collective bourgeois majority would secure 52.4 percent of the vote when combining Høyre, Frp, the Liberal Party (Venstre), and the Christian Democrats (KrF). Høyre's rise to 18 percent is particularly notable. Party leader Erna Solberg has consistently criticized the government's handling of the economy and energy policy.
This right-wing bloc could theoretically form a coalition government if an election were held now. Such a scenario would likely bring significant policy changes, including tax cuts and a more industry-friendly approach to oil and gas exploration. The current government has faced pressure over its environmental policies and their impact on jobs in regions like Stavanger and the Norwegian Sea.
Context of Norwegian Political Volatility
Norwegian politics has experienced increasing fragmentation over the past decade. The rise of smaller parties like Rødt and the Greens (MDG) reflects voter demand for alternatives to the traditional large parties. This poll continues that trend. It also highlights the fluidity of support in between national elections, which are next scheduled for 2025.
The current government, a minority coalition of Labour and the Centre Party, relies on SV for a majority. With SV's support dwindling, every parliamentary vote becomes a tactical challenge. The government may need to seek ad-hoc support from other parties, including potentially Rødt, on specific issues like welfare spending or regional development.
Energy policy remains a critical fault line. Norway is Europe's largest oil and gas producer, and decisions about the industry affect everything from state revenue to employment in coastal communities. Parties like Rødt advocate for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, while bourgeois parties emphasize gradual change and economic stability.
