Finland's largest export sector reports strengthening positive momentum but warns that hopes for rapid economic recovery have faded. The Technology Industries of Finland association says growth has been slower than summer expectations.
Chief economist Hanne Mikkonen commented on the survey results during a Wednesday briefing. 'Growth hasn't been as strong as we hoped in summer,' she said. 'The timing for faster growth has once again shifted slightly forward.'
This pattern has become familiar in recent years. New order values declined slightly in the third quarter while order backlogs remained reasonable. Demand shows gradual improvement.
Trade and geopolitical uncertainty continue to slow investment decisions. The value of new orders decreased by 7% from the previous quarter but increased by 10% compared to the same period last year.
Mikkonen advised against worrying about the small decline. 'Quarter-to-quarter variation is common,' she noted.
In the machinery and metal products sector, new order values decreased by 1% from the previous quarter but surged 20% year-over-year. Order backlogs grew 2% from June and 19% from the previous year.
Mikkonen explained the contradiction between declining new orders and growing backlogs. 'Order backlogs now contain many shipyard and defense industry orders that take years to deliver,' she said.
Industry sentiment remains divided. Optimism about year-end growth has cooled due to policy fluctuations, but slow demand recovery shows signs of stabilization.
'Market activity supports prospects for continued gradual improvement,' Mikkonen summarized.
Employment in the sector is slowly improving. The industry employs 330,000 people directly, with no significant change over the past year. The number of laid-off workers has halved from 14,000 in spring to 7,000 currently.
CEO Minna Helle assessed that sector employment is gradually turning toward growth.
Uncertainty remains the biggest challenge. 'Even after agreements were reached, they haven't brought predictability to trade policy,' Mikkonen said regarding customs disputes. Trade policy uncertainty has become permanent.
The sector exports 90% of its production. 'We're really dependent on how things go globally,' Mikkonen emphasized.
With uncertainty here to stay, Helle urged policymakers in both the EU and Finland to recognize that volatility in export companies' operating environment has become a major problem.
'Finland's competitiveness and operating environment shouldn't be weakened voluntarily in any way,' Helle stressed. 'We need predictable industrial policy that supports confidence.'
She warned that mere discussions about reducing R&D support and implementing overlapping tax changes damage corporate confidence in Finland's investment environment.
The technology industry's turnover in Finland grew 2% from January to July compared to the previous year. Full-year turnover is expected to exceed last year's performance.
The sector accounts for 50% of Finland's exports and 65% of research and development investments. It directly employs approximately 330,000 Finns and indirectly supports about 700,000 jobs.
Despite some positive indicators, the persistent uncertainty in trade policy continues to hamper Finland's export-driven recovery, creating a challenging environment for long-term planning.